I like what Thomas Jefferson supposedly said, "The state governments are the true laboratories of democracy; each state, in its sovereignty, can experiment with new ideas, and the successes of one may be adopted by others, advancing the common good."
There is and should be a balance between states and the federal government. In this case, if an individual or family decries Florida's new laws, they can move out. That's part of the A/B test results...
For sure. We have already run the A/B test on vaccines themselves. What we’re testing now isn’t the efficacy of vaccines. It’s what happens when trust in those vaccines erodes, or when public mandates are rolled back despite that evidence. The variable here isn’t the vaccines, it’s the system.
I'm interested to see how this pans out. For every paper that swears vaccines work, there are equally compelling (and more importantly, independently funded) papers and research showing the opposite. Sounds like Florida is taking the plunge to be a litmus test for this discussion.
And you're absolutely right that government is an experiment, on several levels. Having a decentralized, federalist government allows for flexibility to ensure best practices for every area. Compare this to a country like Russia, where what works for the major cities doesn't fit with the more extreme rural areas - but they still must conform.
It's interesting for sure. I've gone back and forth on my own opinion of vaccines, which was exacerbated further when Covid hit (for obvious reasons). I've never gotten flu shots and have only ever had it a couple times. I have friends who refuse to vaccinate their kids, and others who think that's absolutely insane. It's such a weird topic... and to your point, yes, there are papers that prove and disprove just the same. It's the wild west out there. Will definitely be interesting to see how it all shakes out 🙈
I just hope that whatever happens, one way or the other, we actually listen to the data and don't just dig our heels in for ideological reasons, after the fact. I guess time will tell...
Absolutely. That's the paradox though: we want certainty, but certainty requires data.
In a perfect world, we’d test every public health policy in a simulation. But in this world, the test runs on us. That’s why paying attention to results is a moral responsibility.
Beautifully written and expressed! Thank you. It’s so refreshing to me to read perspectives like this. As an autistic, queer, very liberal middle-aged white fella I sincerely appreciate the non-alarmist perspective.
I believe every minute of each of our lives is nothing more than an experiment. There is no one right way. We all seem to crave freedom, but as soon as we think we KNOW the right way, we’ve lost. Life has this thing I like to call “natural consequences.” They have always been here, always will be, and they are the only consistent way to guide us forward. We will experience the natural consequences of the Florida experiment and either celebrate or grieve. And then we’ll adjust. The moment I vilify others, I’ve lost my heart. Natural consequences are a bitch, for sure… but they don’t lie.
I’m gonna guess the approach is a huge mistake… but if it is, that doesn’t mean I was right… and they should have listened to me. It just means that we now have more data… and can make new decisions in the future. I think this is the nature of life and what will happen in this planet in various expressions for all eternity. Because… that’s what humanity does. That’s life. We’ll figure it out. We always do. But I’d rather do so with love than with fear.
I get your point, but in the case of infectious diseases you’d have to make it illegal to cross state lines. Vaccines aren’t always 100% effective and there are ppl who are allergic and can’t be vaccinated.
That's a good take on the states. I'd never thought about it that way.
It's always state versus state, and which is better. But if we frame it as in one state, things are this way, and in another, things are that way. It's not so much state versus state, but in this state, this is how things are done.
Another part of the learning will come from the tourism industry. Will people avoid Florida because of this policy. It’s not only a risk to people who live there but also to those who visit. Good luck everyone.
Hi Stepfanie! I started reading your substack like so many others when a friend sent me your piece about taste and curation is the "new intelligence," and found it, along with everything else you've written since then, to be thought provoking and articulate. That includes this piece as well. And in an ideal world, in which disease did not cross borders or threaten the lives of children who have no say in the matter, I would agree with you: the A/B test approach to public policy is a worthy perspective. And incredibly valuable in truly novel cases.
But in this case, there is nothing novel about vaccination or the lack of it. Since the creation of the small pox vaccine in 1796, we've learned over and over again what the difference is between having access to vaccines and not having it. There is no "debate" (at least not one that is scientific or based in fact), about the value and efficacy of vaccines. So I suppose in the case of Florida, I don't see how we can approach it as a "novel experiment." It's not novel. We've been down this road before. And we've seen the results.
There is no question as to how this is going to turn out. It may take a couple of years, but there will be outbreaks of fatal and near fatal disease like measles, dypyheria, small pox, and others, that will begin to take the lives of children who did not choose to be part of this so called "experiment." Perhaps I'm missing something, and you've accounted for this in your perspective, and if so, I'd love to hear from you.
Hi Hanna, I appreciate the thoughtful comment and the kind words, ty. I definitely understand your perspective and I agree with it for the most part. I'm not arguing about the efficacy of vaccines—that's already been established, as we've already run the A/B test on vaccines themselves. What we’re testing now isn’t the efficacy of vaccines, but rather what happens when trust in those vaccines erodes, or when public mandates are rolled back *despite that evidence*. The variable here isn’t the vaccines, it’s the system.
What you're pointing out ("but there will be outbreaks of fatal and near fatal disease like measles, dypyheria, small pox, and others...") is a potential outcome, of course, and I did address that in the piece. However, the "test" aspect becomes about how the rest of us iterate and/or course correct based on that data.
I truly believe a healthy pendulum requires extremes on both sides—and I also truly believe that the more extreme the position/test/whatever, the faster we will figure out the truth/appropriate way forward.
Hi Stepfanie! Thank you for the quick and thoughtful reply. I appreciate the hopeful outlook implied in your thesis: that the objective facts / data which are borne of the experiment will give us information that will allow us to course correct (or stay the course as we have in California).
I suppose my problem is that thus far, information -- "facts" -- are not the basis on which these very same groups (extremists on both sides) are making their decisions or creating policy. And in truth, as it concerns the Florida mandate -- we have the facts. We know for instance that the polio vaccine will prevent a debilitating and often fatal disease that is also highly communicable. This is not up for debate. It's established science.
So to "experiment" with the outcome of making the vaccine optional... ? How is that different than the now widely condemned and frankly racist "Syphilis Study" performed in Tuskagee between 1932-1972, in which participants were denied effective treatment even after one became available? Perhaps I am simply less hopeful at the moment that the "facts" will motivate better public policy than they do now. That said, the gods know I hope you turn out to be right. Let the pendulum swing, and see where it lands!
There is no doubt whatsoever that the mRNA shots, (allegedly) designed for Covid, not only didn't work, but if you took it (and especially if you took the 'boosters') you were much more likely to get Covid, have a side effect related to getting cancer or something related to a heart problem, or just die suddenly. Many peer reviewed studies are now available. Herein lies the prerequisite for what Florida is doing. Big Pharma has been playing us for fools for a long time. Bobby Kennedy is a tremendously brave man, and will be in for the challenge of his life. Luckily, he has other very brave and patriotic souls in his corner. Our country has been run by criminals for long enough. If ever there was a time for course correction, that time is upon us. May God bless these courageous and dedicated patriots!
Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. Statements about vaccines “causing cancer” or making you more likely to get COVID are not supported by high-quality peer-reviewed studies. Most studies show mRNA vaccines reduce severe illness, hospitalization, and death.
Anecdotes and opinion pieces aren’t data. Social media threads often cherry-pick rare events, misinterpret studies, or use emotionally charged language to persuade rather than inform.
Risk vs. benefit. Even where rare side effects exist (like myocarditis in young males), the risk of serious complications from COVID-19 itself is much higher.
Credibility matters. People like Robert F. Kennedy Jr. have a history of spreading vaccine misinformation. That doesn’t automatically make every statement false, but it does mean claims need extra scrutiny and independent verification
Claim: mRNA vaccines didn't work and increased susceptibility to COVID-19.
Fact: Extensive peer-reviewed studies have demonstrated that mRNA vaccines significantly reduce the risk of severe illness, hospitalization, and death from COVID-19. While breakthrough infections can occur, vaccinated individuals generally experience milder symptoms compared to those unvaccinated.
I have to agree that they should have and still should be stressing diet lifestyle, vitamin D status, etc. as a means of preventing any infection not just Covid but the guy is wrong. Perhaps there was an increase in Covid infections and people who were vaccinated simply because they had to be exposed to others with it as in healthcare workers That might be the reason for that or vaccinated status made you feel that you were more immune and so you exposed yourself and more dangerous ways, that’s another one however nowhere did he discuss severe infections, hospitalizations, and deaths among the people who were vaccinated, but contracted the disease, which is the important point of a vaccination to prevent death and severe disease case closed
Well, it was only after the media and medical mafia got busted that they changed the meaning of a "vaccine" to prevents you from getting "as" sick or being "as" dead. For the first year and a half they said "once you take this vaccine you WILL NOT GET COVID 19...PERIOD!" You know that that is true. It will all be exposed soon. People are waking up to the truth all over the world.
We should all be looking forward to the "truth". We certainly deserve it. I just hope and pray that we recognize it when we hear it. I won't be holding my breath. Peace!
The beauty of this, though, in my opinion, is that it will be concentrated to Florida. If it goes terribly wrong, it will be very obvious (same for if it succeeds). And hopefully the rest of us will course correct based on the real data, rather than digging our ideological (red vs. blue) heels in. It's gonna be a wild test regardless, that much is true.
We only need to go back about 100 years to see the world without vaccines. Sadly, people died, a lot of them children. It breaks my heart that Florida is going down this road.
The case I'm making is not about the efficacy of vaccines, that's already been established. The variable is now what happens when a state decides to roll back a mandate in spite of evidence of the efficacy. I personally think things will "break" pretty fast with this one, which is actually good news bc the faster something falls apart, the faster we'll all act to put it back together—and status of 'cautionary tale' would be pretty much solidified.
I like what Thomas Jefferson supposedly said, "The state governments are the true laboratories of democracy; each state, in its sovereignty, can experiment with new ideas, and the successes of one may be adopted by others, advancing the common good."
There is and should be a balance between states and the federal government. In this case, if an individual or family decries Florida's new laws, they can move out. That's part of the A/B test results...
Yes, beautifully put. That Jefferson quote (whether or not he said it verbatim) captures the entire thesis: states are experimental engines.
And I agree, mobility itself becomes part of the test. If a policy leads people to opt out, that becomes valuable feedback too.
Isn’t the fact that we’re almost no longer considered measles free one AB test result?
For sure. We have already run the A/B test on vaccines themselves. What we’re testing now isn’t the efficacy of vaccines. It’s what happens when trust in those vaccines erodes, or when public mandates are rolled back despite that evidence. The variable here isn’t the vaccines, it’s the system.
I'm interested to see how this pans out. For every paper that swears vaccines work, there are equally compelling (and more importantly, independently funded) papers and research showing the opposite. Sounds like Florida is taking the plunge to be a litmus test for this discussion.
And you're absolutely right that government is an experiment, on several levels. Having a decentralized, federalist government allows for flexibility to ensure best practices for every area. Compare this to a country like Russia, where what works for the major cities doesn't fit with the more extreme rural areas - but they still must conform.
It's interesting for sure. I've gone back and forth on my own opinion of vaccines, which was exacerbated further when Covid hit (for obvious reasons). I've never gotten flu shots and have only ever had it a couple times. I have friends who refuse to vaccinate their kids, and others who think that's absolutely insane. It's such a weird topic... and to your point, yes, there are papers that prove and disprove just the same. It's the wild west out there. Will definitely be interesting to see how it all shakes out 🙈
I just hope that whatever happens, one way or the other, we actually listen to the data and don't just dig our heels in for ideological reasons, after the fact. I guess time will tell...
I just wish the success or failure of this A/B test wasn't going to be measured in number of lives lost.
Absolutely. That's the paradox though: we want certainty, but certainty requires data.
In a perfect world, we’d test every public health policy in a simulation. But in this world, the test runs on us. That’s why paying attention to results is a moral responsibility.
Beautifully written and expressed! Thank you. It’s so refreshing to me to read perspectives like this. As an autistic, queer, very liberal middle-aged white fella I sincerely appreciate the non-alarmist perspective.
I believe every minute of each of our lives is nothing more than an experiment. There is no one right way. We all seem to crave freedom, but as soon as we think we KNOW the right way, we’ve lost. Life has this thing I like to call “natural consequences.” They have always been here, always will be, and they are the only consistent way to guide us forward. We will experience the natural consequences of the Florida experiment and either celebrate or grieve. And then we’ll adjust. The moment I vilify others, I’ve lost my heart. Natural consequences are a bitch, for sure… but they don’t lie.
I’m gonna guess the approach is a huge mistake… but if it is, that doesn’t mean I was right… and they should have listened to me. It just means that we now have more data… and can make new decisions in the future. I think this is the nature of life and what will happen in this planet in various expressions for all eternity. Because… that’s what humanity does. That’s life. We’ll figure it out. We always do. But I’d rather do so with love than with fear.
I get your point, but in the case of infectious diseases you’d have to make it illegal to cross state lines. Vaccines aren’t always 100% effective and there are ppl who are allergic and can’t be vaccinated.
That's a good take on the states. I'd never thought about it that way.
It's always state versus state, and which is better. But if we frame it as in one state, things are this way, and in another, things are that way. It's not so much state versus state, but in this state, this is how things are done.
Thanks for sharing!
Another part of the learning will come from the tourism industry. Will people avoid Florida because of this policy. It’s not only a risk to people who live there but also to those who visit. Good luck everyone.
An additional layer: will residents of Florida move out of Florida?
Hi Stepfanie! I started reading your substack like so many others when a friend sent me your piece about taste and curation is the "new intelligence," and found it, along with everything else you've written since then, to be thought provoking and articulate. That includes this piece as well. And in an ideal world, in which disease did not cross borders or threaten the lives of children who have no say in the matter, I would agree with you: the A/B test approach to public policy is a worthy perspective. And incredibly valuable in truly novel cases.
But in this case, there is nothing novel about vaccination or the lack of it. Since the creation of the small pox vaccine in 1796, we've learned over and over again what the difference is between having access to vaccines and not having it. There is no "debate" (at least not one that is scientific or based in fact), about the value and efficacy of vaccines. So I suppose in the case of Florida, I don't see how we can approach it as a "novel experiment." It's not novel. We've been down this road before. And we've seen the results.
There is no question as to how this is going to turn out. It may take a couple of years, but there will be outbreaks of fatal and near fatal disease like measles, dypyheria, small pox, and others, that will begin to take the lives of children who did not choose to be part of this so called "experiment." Perhaps I'm missing something, and you've accounted for this in your perspective, and if so, I'd love to hear from you.
Hi Hanna, I appreciate the thoughtful comment and the kind words, ty. I definitely understand your perspective and I agree with it for the most part. I'm not arguing about the efficacy of vaccines—that's already been established, as we've already run the A/B test on vaccines themselves. What we’re testing now isn’t the efficacy of vaccines, but rather what happens when trust in those vaccines erodes, or when public mandates are rolled back *despite that evidence*. The variable here isn’t the vaccines, it’s the system.
What you're pointing out ("but there will be outbreaks of fatal and near fatal disease like measles, dypyheria, small pox, and others...") is a potential outcome, of course, and I did address that in the piece. However, the "test" aspect becomes about how the rest of us iterate and/or course correct based on that data.
I truly believe a healthy pendulum requires extremes on both sides—and I also truly believe that the more extreme the position/test/whatever, the faster we will figure out the truth/appropriate way forward.
Hi Stepfanie! Thank you for the quick and thoughtful reply. I appreciate the hopeful outlook implied in your thesis: that the objective facts / data which are borne of the experiment will give us information that will allow us to course correct (or stay the course as we have in California).
I suppose my problem is that thus far, information -- "facts" -- are not the basis on which these very same groups (extremists on both sides) are making their decisions or creating policy. And in truth, as it concerns the Florida mandate -- we have the facts. We know for instance that the polio vaccine will prevent a debilitating and often fatal disease that is also highly communicable. This is not up for debate. It's established science.
So to "experiment" with the outcome of making the vaccine optional... ? How is that different than the now widely condemned and frankly racist "Syphilis Study" performed in Tuskagee between 1932-1972, in which participants were denied effective treatment even after one became available? Perhaps I am simply less hopeful at the moment that the "facts" will motivate better public policy than they do now. That said, the gods know I hope you turn out to be right. Let the pendulum swing, and see where it lands!
There is no doubt whatsoever that the mRNA shots, (allegedly) designed for Covid, not only didn't work, but if you took it (and especially if you took the 'boosters') you were much more likely to get Covid, have a side effect related to getting cancer or something related to a heart problem, or just die suddenly. Many peer reviewed studies are now available. Herein lies the prerequisite for what Florida is doing. Big Pharma has been playing us for fools for a long time. Bobby Kennedy is a tremendously brave man, and will be in for the challenge of his life. Luckily, he has other very brave and patriotic souls in his corner. Our country has been run by criminals for long enough. If ever there was a time for course correction, that time is upon us. May God bless these courageous and dedicated patriots!
Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. Statements about vaccines “causing cancer” or making you more likely to get COVID are not supported by high-quality peer-reviewed studies. Most studies show mRNA vaccines reduce severe illness, hospitalization, and death.
Anecdotes and opinion pieces aren’t data. Social media threads often cherry-pick rare events, misinterpret studies, or use emotionally charged language to persuade rather than inform.
Risk vs. benefit. Even where rare side effects exist (like myocarditis in young males), the risk of serious complications from COVID-19 itself is much higher.
Credibility matters. People like Robert F. Kennedy Jr. have a history of spreading vaccine misinformation. That doesn’t automatically make every statement false, but it does mean claims need extra scrutiny and independent verification
Dr. John Campbell reviews peer reviewed Japan Study proving mRNA negative efficacy. (And more)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sKkKGK6wsF8
🧪 mRNA Vaccines and COVID-19
Claim: mRNA vaccines didn't work and increased susceptibility to COVID-19.
Fact: Extensive peer-reviewed studies have demonstrated that mRNA vaccines significantly reduce the risk of severe illness, hospitalization, and death from COVID-19. While breakthrough infections can occur, vaccinated individuals generally experience milder symptoms compared to those unvaccinated.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sKkKGK6wsF8
I have to agree that they should have and still should be stressing diet lifestyle, vitamin D status, etc. as a means of preventing any infection not just Covid but the guy is wrong. Perhaps there was an increase in Covid infections and people who were vaccinated simply because they had to be exposed to others with it as in healthcare workers That might be the reason for that or vaccinated status made you feel that you were more immune and so you exposed yourself and more dangerous ways, that’s another one however nowhere did he discuss severe infections, hospitalizations, and deaths among the people who were vaccinated, but contracted the disease, which is the important point of a vaccination to prevent death and severe disease case closed
Well, it was only after the media and medical mafia got busted that they changed the meaning of a "vaccine" to prevents you from getting "as" sick or being "as" dead. For the first year and a half they said "once you take this vaccine you WILL NOT GET COVID 19...PERIOD!" You know that that is true. It will all be exposed soon. People are waking up to the truth all over the world.
I’ll opt for not being as sick or dead, thanks.
But I look forward to all the revelations
We should all be looking forward to the "truth". We certainly deserve it. I just hope and pray that we recognize it when we hear it. I won't be holding my breath. Peace!
Well, if the decline of measles vaccination rates and increases in the disease is any indication, then I can assume we’ll see similar results in FL.
It’s another story of red states vs blue.. leading us further and further apart.
The beauty of this, though, in my opinion, is that it will be concentrated to Florida. If it goes terribly wrong, it will be very obvious (same for if it succeeds). And hopefully the rest of us will course correct based on the real data, rather than digging our ideological (red vs. blue) heels in. It's gonna be a wild test regardless, that much is true.
We only need to go back about 100 years to see the world without vaccines. Sadly, people died, a lot of them children. It breaks my heart that Florida is going down this road.
The case I'm making is not about the efficacy of vaccines, that's already been established. The variable is now what happens when a state decides to roll back a mandate in spite of evidence of the efficacy. I personally think things will "break" pretty fast with this one, which is actually good news bc the faster something falls apart, the faster we'll all act to put it back together—and status of 'cautionary tale' would be pretty much solidified.